NBA Playoff Preview

Finally, after only 1,230 games the league said goodbye to its 14 biggest losers.  Now it's on to the real season, the playoffs.  Here's a quick look at the first round match-ups.  All of these predictions will probably change as the series get underway.  That's why the playoffs are so great.  Every game matters.  You play the same team night after night which means you become very familiar with what each team likes to do.  This is where great coaches show their ability to adapt to a series.  Although this season seemed to allow a lot more contact to players going to the basket, the playoffs will be even more physical.  There's a lot a stake for lot of very fast, very big very wealthy ball players.

• East #1 Chicago Bulls vs. #8 Indiana Pacers:  The Bulls finished with the best record in the NBA (62-20).  The Pacers finished 25 games behind them at 37-45.  This should be a breeze for Derrick Rose.  I'd imagine the Pacers will one at home but this series should be over quick.  The Bulls are too deep. Boozer, Deng and Noah anchor the top flight frontcourt while Brewer, Bogins and Korver share the backcourt with Rose. Gibson and Thomas give the Bulls depth.  The bulls rely on Rose for so much.  He leads them in points (25) and assists (7.7) so I would expect the Pacers to try and make him give up the ball and make the other Bulls become scorers and playmakers.  That should not be a problem against Indiana.  The Pacers (who lost the season series to the Chicago 3-1) don't have the size or talent to stay with Chicago.  They are a tough minded team with five players scoring in double figures but none of them (unless Ben Gordon gets hot) require double teaming.  They're not deep and don't play defense well either.  This series will be short and a confidence builder for the Bulls.
•  East #2 Miami Heat vs. #7 Philadelphia 76ers:  On paper this looks like another rout and may well become one.  Miami is led by its superstar lineup of Lebron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosch and host of supporting characters.  There's lots of pressure on these guys though.  Everyone expects them to compete for the title and certainly to handle Philly.  Those three players score almost 71 points per game (nearly 70% of their offense).  Although they out rebound their opponents overall they give up more offensive rebounds than they get. The pressure is on them though.  The Sixers got off to an awful start under new coach Doug Collins but he has turned them into a solid team.  They have six guys who score between 10 and 15 points each but the reality is that have no one who is up the caliber of the top Heat players.  They don't rebound well but they are a good defensive team (better stats than Miami) Still they are a good team and it will be interesting to see if they jell as a team and put enough pressure on Miami to challenge.  I wouldn't expect that to happen but good teams sometimes give superstar laden teams who are looking ahead a run for their money.  Collins is a good enough coach to pull something like that off but realistically it seems unlikely. The Sixers lost all three of their games to the Heat in the regular season.
• #3 Boston Celtics vs. #6 New York Knicks:  This should be an entertaining series.  The old Celtics Big Three (Pierce, Allen and Garnett) plus Rajon Rondo should be more than enough for the ever changing Knicks. Boston swept the season series and figures to quell any dreams Spike Lee might have for a Knick title this year.  Still the Celtics are vulnerable.  They finished the year going 10-11 and look weak in the middle.  They are counting on getting Shaq O'Neal back at center but he's missed 45 games this season, made a try at coming back a week ago and lasted five minutes.  He gives them size but most of the time he'll be on the bench.  It won't matter.  Boston has way too much experience, defense and talent for the remade Knicks who are seriously defensively challenged. New York is like a pale imitation of the Miami except they only have two superstars (Anthony and Stoudemire) plus the aging but talented Chauncy Billups.  They also have a budding star in Landry Fields but that won't be near enough to get them by.  The Knicks win with their offense but they lose because of their defense (or lack of it).  They give up nearly 106 points per game.  They won't get them far against any playoff opponent much less one as talented as Boston.
• #4 Orland Magic vs. #5 Atlanta Hawks:  This is the most intriguing match up in the East but Orlando has a monster in the middle in Dwight Howard and Atlanta doesn't have anyone who can match up with him (but then again, who does?)    Good as Howard is on the boards and as a defender he becomes an offensive liability down the stretch because of his poor free throw shooting.  The Magic have lots of other shooters though (Richardson, Nelson and Turkoglu among others).  Atlanta, which seemed to be on the rise coming into this season, has been an inconsistent team all season.  They are led by two guys named Smith (Josh) and Johnson (Joe) but they have five guys scoring in double figures.  Although they give only 95.8 points per game they only score 95 themselves.  Even though they won the season series 3-1 they don't have home court in this series and they don't have the horses to handle the size and talent of Orlando.
• West #1 San Antonio Spurs vs. # Memphis Grizzlies: The Spurs were the runaway best team in the league almost all season but they stumbled down the stretch after Duncan sprained an ankle (he's back) and now they've lost Ginobili with a hyperextended right elbow. For most teams that would be a problem but this team is very deep.  The Lakers found out how deep the other night when they struggled to beat the Spurs second team.  Parker is the key to this team but it has so much depth that even losing him would not be something they couldn't overcome (at least in the first round).  Memphis split the season series with the Spurs so they may think they have hope but the reality is that they just don't have the talent or the depth to win this series.  They are tough, talented and young and in the playoffs two of those three are not bad.  Still their lack of experience will hurt but not as much as the difference in talent and experience between their starters and the Spurs.
• West #2 Los Angeles Lakers vs. #7 New Orleans Hornets:  Last year the Lakers lucked out in the first few playoff rounds by meeting teams they could handle and avoiding the ones that give them trouble.  This year's playoffs have started the same way with Lakers overtime win the last game of the season giving them a match-up against the depleted Hornets (missing David West) instead of the Trailblazers (who always give the Lakers fits.  The Lakers long, experienced and talented (assuming Bynum is close to healthy) and have a bench that can contribute (although many times it doesn't).  The starting line up is as good as any in the league and Odom off the bench would be starting for most other teams.  Memphis is a good defensive team (94 points per game) but not a great offensive one even with David West.  Chris Paul and Jarrett Jack are great point guards but the playoffs will won on the inside.  The Lakers have too much of everything to think that the Hornets can challenge them.  The Lakers won the season series 4-0.  
• West #3 Dallas Mavericks vs. #6 Portland Trailblazers:  Dallas started off looking like a great team but finished like only a good one.  Portland has gotten better as the season has gone on and they play great at home (luckily for Dallas they have the home court adavantage).  Dallas relies on Nowitzki and Terry for points  (and really misses Caron Butler).  They are led by an aging but great point guard in Jason Kidd. They've added some outside shooters to take some pressure off of Nowitzki but the the biggest difference for them is the addition of Tyson Chandler at center wher he anchors their defense.  Portland is tough team with six players scoring in double figures led by LaMarcus Aldridge, Wesley Matthews and Gerald Wallace.  On paper the Mavs look bigger and better but on the court they may end up just looking older. Dallas has been called out lately around the league as being soft.  This series could very well show how soft they are.
• #4 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. #5 Denver Nuggets:  This should be a fun series.  Denver was remade with the loss of Carmelo Anthony but coach George Karl has made this into a solid young team.  The problem is that Oklahoma City is already a solid young and somewhat more experienced team than the Nuggets.  Durant and Westbrook are the top scoring duo in the league and they have lots of help. Down the stretch the Thunder have two go to guys to win games for them.  The Nuggets don't have one.  But they do have a great coach and they play well together.  I don't think that will be enough but it will still be intriguing to watch.